duit's COMCORP (7195) prcie action dissection
Author: duitKWSPkita | Publish date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016, 06:09 PM
Dear Reader,
This blog is written for educational purpose. I will touch little bit on P&L implication on the upcoming Q1 result as it's important for us to benchmark it's "fair" psychology price. I was actually seeing the stock -Comcorp whole day and I was very sure one had more than 9 times to escape before the massive sell-down at 4:15PM. No other mean why I was there for whole day but to monitor and discuss privately(email) with my friends in comcorp thread.
I would try my best to cover:
Overview of Comcorp
This is considered as relatively high borrowing company whose business highly denominated in US Dollar. Few divisions under the company but we do realize the manufacturing of radio frequency engineering products are the key driver for the company as IT CONTRIBUTED 100% FOR THE NET PROFIT. The group has ventured into green energy but it's still in very beginning stage and not much exposure to the market. Bursa just updated En. Abdul Majid Bin Omar disposed blocks of his shares.
Profit & Loss position as the game plan catalyst
No matter good or bad company. In order for a high price sell down to be successful it wont runaway from
1) Blow wind of new influential shareholder or impressive business earning growth outlook
2) Increase of volume & price to imply interest of public
3) Design stage of price position vs date to confirm the signals of Technical Analysis such as breakout/bullish signal/TP2/TP4/higher high support level
4) Important date to flush the shares quietly above the turnover price but if it fail landslide is the worst and last option
Let's discuss the P&L position in below.
Figure 1: 3 years share price record
Figure 1 show us the movement of price and company become active since June' 2015 where Ringgit Malaysia started to be weaken. It can be explained by the end April result announced in June' 25 2015.
Figure 2: Correlation of exchange rate versus Net Profit and Revenue
In Figure 2 a good fundamental analyst shall be able to spot the share price increase was mainly due to "currency gain" but not really from operating beneficial such as sales volume or new customers. I humbly remind you on the flattish REVENUE within this 6 quarters despite increment of net profit (driven by exchange rate from 3.222 to 4.206).
Most important info here is we can easily predict the upcoming Q1 result based on average 4.050 exchange rate the net profit should be less than RM3.3 million but still higher QoQ result. Note: last Q1 is EPS 1.33 & N.Profit 1.9 mil.
10 chances to escape and what insights you missed out
Different operator has the different way of disposal and it has no common symptons to identify when the sell down start. Nevertheless, with real time monitoring on the buy & sell queu compare with previous days plus analysis on the 3X3 and 5X5 queuing will gproovide you some hint what would be NEXT! Instacom has different pattern, RAYA another type, Parkson and POS are more mature throwing process. I believe many experience traders could spot it but if share it out the operator will change their plan accordingly.
Figure 3: sell down chart
Figure 4: 10 chances to escape before the strong sell down at 4:15PM
I try to dissect and put it in more detailed info like time, lots of single disposal, unit price and total sum and below are examples of the data extraction. I have alerted few close friends at 9:37AM when I notice they start to queue formation for the sell down and the initial plan was to press down to RM0.905 with the daily cut loss point at RM0.890. The 9:22:00 1090 lots disposal happened after the cancellation of queing at RM0.935. Morning 5X5 queing was about equal thus the test water was not triggered anyone.
If you recall yesterday US futures and Asian MSCI started to improve from 10:30AM (see Figure 3) there excited day trader jumped in to form upside momentum. For info, in any occasion a real upside must be confirmed through 2 steps (increase of BUYER number and cancellation of SELLERS) but BUYER vs SELLER still 56 vs 135 ; 5X5 : 136,681 vs 249,892. Before morning closing big player started to throw on the ready buyer and BUY RATE was about 53%. Main problem is whole morning I did not see major buyer stepped in but all has been done through retailer.
It is very obvious when the second session open they would pushed higher. I HIGHLIGHTED IN THE THREAD TO TAKE PROFIT AT RM0.285 because they purposely pushed over RM0.280 (breakout area based on TA) to lure more buyers to chase breakout towrads RM1.00.
3:09:00 to 3:09:08 where we saw sell queue from above RM0.990 being cancelled and the exact lot number thrown to match at RM0.975/0.980 without second thought. With the BUY RATE of 55% and 5X5 negative 2.3X implied that they run out of time and must clear everything before closing.
3:30:23 the condition became worsen with the CANCEL QUEU-throw direct and ADD ON SELL QUEUE but I must say that technical chart in 5m and 15m become more attractive (designed by experienced operator) where everyone jump out to shout RM1 target.
Prior to 4:00:00 I made a strong statement to several friends to take profit and highlighted (庄家洗牌几乎完毕。后果可大可小。强烈建议清仓！) because at the time 5X5 became heavier and suddenly RM0.995/RM1.00 disappeared but never see sign of support. Some big queue stood at RM0.935/RM0.930/RM0.925 there to confirm sell down mechanism.
Game play after sell down
Figure 5: 5 stages of ditribution after proper plan
Well, game play on Thursday after sell down???????? We can talk until cow come to home and come to bed but things are evolving too fast as operator react accordingly. Based on analysis operator was only throw 47% and the rest 53% was thrown by panicking retailers. No matter sell down caused by cease of major shareholder or business concern some big players already took advantage at the several stages.
For me the range of RM0.575 - RM0.780 is quite reasonable for quick day trader. Any open low will give rebound opportunity while Gap up will trigger CUT LOSS for long term players. FA wise the businesses earning will be discounted but the game is not over yet.
Conclusion:
I hope everyone can spend some time in market psychology other than technical analysis and fundamental anlysis. You do not need to change stream to 100% Psychology Analysis but to understand there is opportunity of manipulation in every corner. Lastly, I hope all my friends could exit with minimum damage.
This blog is written for educational purpose. I will touch little bit on P&L implication on the upcoming Q1 result as it's important for us to benchmark it's "fair" psychology price. I was actually seeing the stock -Comcorp whole day and I was very sure one had more than 9 times to escape before the massive sell-down at 4:15PM. No other mean why I was there for whole day but to monitor and discuss privately(email) with my friends in comcorp thread.
I would try my best to cover:
- Overview of Comcorp
- Profit & Loss position as the game plan catalyst
- 10 chances to escape and what insights you missed out
- Game play after sell down
- Conclusion
Overview of Comcorp
This is considered as relatively high borrowing company whose business highly denominated in US Dollar. Few divisions under the company but we do realize the manufacturing of radio frequency engineering products are the key driver for the company as IT CONTRIBUTED 100% FOR THE NET PROFIT. The group has ventured into green energy but it's still in very beginning stage and not much exposure to the market. Bursa just updated En. Abdul Majid Bin Omar disposed blocks of his shares.
Profit & Loss position as the game plan catalyst
No matter good or bad company. In order for a high price sell down to be successful it wont runaway from
1) Blow wind of new influential shareholder or impressive business earning growth outlook
2) Increase of volume & price to imply interest of public
3) Design stage of price position vs date to confirm the signals of Technical Analysis such as breakout/bullish signal/TP2/TP4/higher high support level
4) Important date to flush the shares quietly above the turnover price but if it fail landslide is the worst and last option
Let's discuss the P&L position in below.
Figure 1: 3 years share price record
Figure 1 show us the movement of price and company become active since June' 2015 where Ringgit Malaysia started to be weaken. It can be explained by the end April result announced in June' 25 2015.
Figure 2: Correlation of exchange rate versus Net Profit and Revenue
In Figure 2 a good fundamental analyst shall be able to spot the share price increase was mainly due to "currency gain" but not really from operating beneficial such as sales volume or new customers. I humbly remind you on the flattish REVENUE within this 6 quarters despite increment of net profit (driven by exchange rate from 3.222 to 4.206).
Most important info here is we can easily predict the upcoming Q1 result based on average 4.050 exchange rate the net profit should be less than RM3.3 million but still higher QoQ result. Note: last Q1 is EPS 1.33 & N.Profit 1.9 mil.
10 chances to escape and what insights you missed out
Different operator has the different way of disposal and it has no common symptons to identify when the sell down start. Nevertheless, with real time monitoring on the buy & sell queu compare with previous days plus analysis on the 3X3 and 5X5 queuing will gproovide you some hint what would be NEXT! Instacom has different pattern, RAYA another type, Parkson and POS are more mature throwing process. I believe many experience traders could spot it but if share it out the operator will change their plan accordingly.
Figure 3: sell down chart
Figure 4: 10 chances to escape before the strong sell down at 4:15PM
I try to dissect and put it in more detailed info like time, lots of single disposal, unit price and total sum and below are examples of the data extraction. I have alerted few close friends at 9:37AM when I notice they start to queue formation for the sell down and the initial plan was to press down to RM0.905 with the daily cut loss point at RM0.890. The 9:22:00 1090 lots disposal happened after the cancellation of queing at RM0.935. Morning 5X5 queing was about equal thus the test water was not triggered anyone.
If you recall yesterday US futures and Asian MSCI started to improve from 10:30AM (see Figure 3) there excited day trader jumped in to form upside momentum. For info, in any occasion a real upside must be confirmed through 2 steps (increase of BUYER number and cancellation of SELLERS) but BUYER vs SELLER still 56 vs 135 ; 5X5 : 136,681 vs 249,892. Before morning closing big player started to throw on the ready buyer and BUY RATE was about 53%. Main problem is whole morning I did not see major buyer stepped in but all has been done through retailer.
It is very obvious when the second session open they would pushed higher. I HIGHLIGHTED IN THE THREAD TO TAKE PROFIT AT RM0.285 because they purposely pushed over RM0.280 (breakout area based on TA) to lure more buyers to chase breakout towrads RM1.00.
3:09:00 to 3:09:08 where we saw sell queue from above RM0.990 being cancelled and the exact lot number thrown to match at RM0.975/0.980 without second thought. With the BUY RATE of 55% and 5X5 negative 2.3X implied that they run out of time and must clear everything before closing.
3:30:23 the condition became worsen with the CANCEL QUEU-throw direct and ADD ON SELL QUEUE but I must say that technical chart in 5m and 15m become more attractive (designed by experienced operator) where everyone jump out to shout RM1 target.
Prior to 4:00:00 I made a strong statement to several friends to take profit and highlighted (庄家洗牌几乎完毕。后果可大可小。强烈建议清仓！) because at the time 5X5 became heavier and suddenly RM0.995/RM1.00 disappeared but never see sign of support. Some big queue stood at RM0.935/RM0.930/RM0.925 there to confirm sell down mechanism.
Game play after sell down
Figure 5: 5 stages of ditribution after proper plan
Well, game play on Thursday after sell down???????? We can talk until cow come to home and come to bed but things are evolving too fast as operator react accordingly. Based on analysis operator was only throw 47% and the rest 53% was thrown by panicking retailers. No matter sell down caused by cease of major shareholder or business concern some big players already took advantage at the several stages.
For me the range of RM0.575 - RM0.780 is quite reasonable for quick day trader. Any open low will give rebound opportunity while Gap up will trigger CUT LOSS for long term players. FA wise the businesses earning will be discounted but the game is not over yet.
Conclusion:
I hope everyone can spend some time in market psychology other than technical analysis and fundamental anlysis. You do not need to change stream to 100% Psychology Analysis but to understand there is opportunity of manipulation in every corner. Lastly, I hope all my friends could exit with minimum damage.
