Wednesday, March 30, 2016

KLCI MAR 2016

30-3-2016


Likely wave B play... might test 1726 or higher tomorrow to complete B.




29-3-2016






25-3-2016






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2-3-2016






1-3-2016


Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Monday, March 28, 2016

Global GDP Growth Will Start Q2 2016 On A Firm Note

Global activity growth has bounced back to 2.6 per cent, compared to a low point of 2.2 per cent a few weeks back. Much of this recovery has occurred in the advanced economies, with our nowcast for the United States showing a particularly marked rebound after more than 12 months of progressive slowdown.
It would be wrong to place too much importance on a single month's data, especially when the nowcasts are heavily influenced by business and consumer surveys. But the early indications are encouraging.
These surveys have remained mixed, but downward momentum has been partly reversed in most advanced economies, especially in the US where the regional Fed surveys for March have been identified by the nowcast models as major upside surprises. In fact, sentiment had become so pessimistic that even slightly better data have represented positive surprises relative to economists' expectations, according to the Citigroup Surprise Indices.
These better numbers still leave the global economy growing at 0.7 per cent below trend, so spare capacity in the world system is still rising, and long term underlying inflation pressures should therefore still be dropping.
Better, but still not very good, is this month's verdict. Full details of this month's nowcasts are attached.
More . . . .
Read/download the report here:
Download the attached appendix here:

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, sees only two hikes in 2016

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday and signaled it will lift them more slowly than previously indicated because of a weak global environment and volatile stock market.
The Fed said in a statement said its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate in a range of 0.25%-0.5%. The decision was widely expected.
The big change was in the Fed’s so-called “dot plot,” where officials penciled in only two quarter-point hikes this year, down from four in December.
“We continue to see risks,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a press conference after top officials met. But she also pointed out that “the U.S. economy has been very resilient in recent months.”
U.S. stocks SPX, +0.56%  moved higher after the Fed decision. Treasury yields tumbled.
Just a few months ago, the Fed appeared ready to embark on a series of interest-rate increases after determining the economy was strong enough to handle it. Yet big losses in the stock market early in the year, slowing U.S. growth and fresh worries the global economy spurred the Fed to back off.
Financial markets don’t expect a rate hike before June.
More recently the U.S. economy seems to have stabilized, easing some of the Fed’s concerns. The central bank on Wednesday pointed to improved consumer spending, a stronger housing market and “strong job gains.”
Yet the Fed acknowledged that exports and business investment remain soft. Inflation is expected to remain on the low side this year, even though there are some signs that price pressures are building.
The Fed predicted its preferred PCE inflation gauge will end 2016 at 1.2%, down from a prior forecast of 1.6%. The bank wants to see inflation rise to the 2% level it considers a sign of a healthier economy.
”What the Fed is saying is that they are willing to tolerate some more inflation,” said John Canally, an economist and investment strategist at LPL Financial.
The FOMC vote was 9-1. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Bank of Japan holds steady on policy, negative rates

Investing.com - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday held monetary policy steady in an 8 to 1 vote and negative rates intact in a 7 to 2 vote.
The BoJ however downgraded its estimates of inflation to a weaker outlook for price growth.
The BoJ has an annual target of ¥80 trillion in asset purchased and a 0.1% negative interest rate on deposits.
"Although inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective, they have recently weakened," the BoJ said. In January it said "some indicators have recently shown relatively weak developments."
"The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about zero percent for the time being," the BoJ repeated.
Two of the four members who voted against adopting the negative interest rate policy at the bank's last meeting in January continued opposing the new tool of monetary easing. They said the BoJ should apply positive 0.1% interest to current account balances excluding the amount outstanding of the required reserves held by financial institutions at the central bank.
Among technical measures for smoothly implementing easing, the board decided to review the scale of current deposits to which the negative 0.1% interest is applied every three months.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

THE FIBONACCI SEQUENCE AND ITS APPLICATION

THE FIBONACCI SEQUENCE AND ITS APPLICATION
Known for millennia by scientists, naturalists and mathematicians, the sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and so on to infinity is known today as the Fibonacci sequence. The sum of any two adjacent numbers in this sequence forms the next higher number in the sequence, viz., 1 plus 1 equals 2, 1 plus 2 equals 3, 2 plus 3 equals 5, 3 plus 5 equals 8, and so on to infinity. The ratio of any two consecutive numbers in the sequence approximates 1.618, or its inverse, .618, after the first several numbers. Refer to Figure 24 for a complete ratio table interlocking all Fibonacci numbers from 1 to 144.
1.618 (or .618) is known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean. Nature uses the Golden Ratio in its most intimate building blocks and in its most advanced patterns, in forms as minuscule as atomic structure and DNA molecules to those as large as planetary orbits and galaxies. It is involved in such diverse phenomena as quasi crystal arrangements, planetary distances and periods, reflections of light beams on glass, the brain and nervous system, musical arrangement, and the structures of plants and animals. Science is rapidly discovering that there is indeed a basic proportional principle of nature. The stock market has the very same mathematical base as do these natural phenomena.
At every degree of stock market activity, a bull market subdivides into five waves and a bear market subdivides into three waves, giving us the 5-3 relationship that is the mathematical basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We can generate the complete Fibonacci sequence by using Elliott's concept of the progression of the market. If we start with the simplest expression of the concept of a bear swing, we get one straight line decline. A bull swing, in its simplest form, is one straight line advance. A complete cycle is two lines. In the next degree of complexity, the corresponding numbers are 3, 5 and 8. As illustrated in Figure 25, this sequence can be taken to infinity.
Figure 24

Figure 25
In its broadest sense, then, the Elliott Wave Principle proposes that the same law that shapes living creatures and galaxies is inherent in the spirit and attitudes of men en masse. The Elliott Wave Principle shows up clearly in the market because the stock market is the finest reflector of mass psychology in the world. It is a nearly perfect recording of man's social psychological states and trends, reflecting the fluctuating valuation of his own productive enterprise, and making manifest its very real patterns of progress and regress. Whether our readers accept or reject this proposition makes no great difference, as the empirical evidence is available for study and observation. Order in life? Yes. Order in the stock market? Apparently.
RATIO ANALYSIS
Ratio analysis has revealed a number of precise price relationships that occur often among waves. There are two categories of relationships: retracements and multiples.
Retracements
Fairly often, a correction retraces a Fibonacci percentage of the preceding wave. As illustrated in Figure 26, sharp corrections tend more often to retrace 61.8% or 50% of the previous wave, particularly when they occur as wave 2 of an impulse wave, wave B of a larger zigzag, or wave X in a multiple zigzag. Sideways corrections tend more often to retrace 38.2% of the previous impulse wave, particularly when they occur as wave 4, as shown in Figure 27.
Figure 26

Figure 27
Retracements are where most analysts place their focus. Far more reliable, however, are relationships between alternate waves, or lengths unfolding in the same direction, as explained in the next section.
Motive Wave Multiples
When wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend towards equality or a .618 relationship, as illustrated in Figure 28. Actually, all three impulsive waves tend to be related by Fibonacci mathematics, whether by equality, 1.618 or 2.618 (whose inverses are .618 and .382). These impulse wave relationships usually occur in percentage terms. For instance, wave I from 1932 to 1937 gained 371.6%, while wave III from 1942 to 1966 gained 971.7%, or 2.618 times as much.
Wave 5's length is sometimes related by the Fibonacci ratio to the length of wave 1 through wave 3, as illustrated in Figure 29. In those rare cases when wave 1 is extended, it is wave 2 that often subdivides the entire impulse wave into the Golden Section, as shown in Figure 30.
Figure 28            Figure 29            Figure 30
In a related observation, unless wave 1 is extended, wave 4 often divides the price range of an impulse wave into the Golden Section. In such cases, the latter portion is .382 of the total distance when wave 5 is not extended, as shown in Figure 31, and .618 when it is, as shown in Figure 32. This guideline explains why a retracement following a fifth wave often has double resistance at the same level: the end of the preceding fourth wave and the .382 retracement point.
 
Figure 31
Figure 32

Corrective Wave Multiples
In a zigzag, the length of wave C is usually equal to that of wave A, as shown in Figure 33, although it is not uncommonly 1.618 or .618 times the length of wave A. This same relationship applies to a second zigzag (labeled Y) relative to the first (labeled W) in a double zigzag pattern, as shown in Figure 34.
Figure 33          Figure 34
In a regular flat correction, waves A, B and C are, of course, approximately equal. In an expanded flat correction, wave C is usually 1.618 times the length of wave A. Often wave C will terminate beyond the end of wave A by .618 times the length of wave A. Each of these tendencies are illustrated in Figure 35. In rare cases, wave C is 2.618 times the length of wave A. Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A.
Figure 35
In a triangle, we have found that at least two of the alternate waves are typically related to each other by .618. I.e., in a contracting, ascending or descending triangle, wave e = .618c, wave c = .618a, or wave d = .618b. In an expanding triangle, the multiple is 1.618.
In double and triple corrections, the net travel of one simple pattern is sometimes related to another by equality or, particularly if one of the threes is a triangle, by .618. Finally, wave 4 quite commonly spans a gross or net price range that has an equality or Fibonacci relationship to its corresponding wave 2. As with impulse waves, these relationships usually occur in percentage terms.
These guidelines increase dramatically in utility when used together, as several are simultaneously applicable in almost every situation at the various degrees of trend.

European Central Bank cuts rates, expands asset-buying program

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key lending rate to zero, pushed its deposit rate further into negative territory and significantly expanded the size and scope of its asset-buying program. ECB policy makers cut the bank's key lending rate, known as the refi rate, to zero from 0.05% and pushed the rate on its deposit facility to minus 0.4% from minus 0.3%. The central bank also announced it would expand the size of its monthly bond purchases to 80 billion euros from its current level of 60 billion euros beginning in April and would include purchases of investment-grade, euro-denominated, non-bank corporate bonds. The ECB also said it would launch a new series of longer-term refinancing operations with maturities of four years.

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

冷眼先生-交流记


冷眼先生-交流记
今天很有幸的，能与冷眼先生有个交流会。就在此和大家分享吧。
一直以来有99%的人都会问他对市场的看法。这让冷眼先生很不解，为什么大家都不是问他对公司的看法呢。投资本来就应该关心公司的营运和前景，而不是市场。他对目前市场走势也不了解。
投资模式有很多。无论什么数据和计价证明，只要你不能从股市赚钱，一切都是空谈。投资本来是件很简单的东西，但很多人却把他复杂化。只要你能从生意的角度去看价值，市场的行情走势和股价对你不会有影响。
以AirAsia为例子，他说如果给你选AAX和AirAsia，你会选哪个？其实这答案很简单。冷眼先生说如果想起国内航班或便宜班机，你会想起什么航线？如果想起国际航班，你又会想起什么航线?这答案顿时点醒了我! AirAsia最新季度扣除了外汇收入大概在每股10-15cent左右。至于它的价值呢，他说这要看看市场到底会给AirAsia什么PE。
谈起债务，冷眼先生也对此有另一番见解。以他过往的经验，债务并不是最重要的一环。就算一个公司债务再高，只要那公司能持续带来positive营运现金流，这代表公司营运没什么问题，也能解决债务的负担。只要那公司业务能持续增长，债务也只是个数字。Cash Flow和Profit才是一门生意的王道。这番答案不得不让我对冷眼先生的生意眼光和见解，感到佩服！
此外，冷眼先生也对NTA有不同的看法。NTA是一间公司的净资产，他是不属于股东的。就算cash和asset再多，只要公司不好好利用来增加收益，也与股东无关。当然，一间又高现金又有好业绩的公司，更是最好不过。所以呢，NTA不是他选支股票的考量。
总结来说，冷眼先生选股精髓就在以下。这已经排除了NTA。
G – Growth 成长
D – Dividend 股息
P – Price (PER) 价值
P – Profit 盈利
R – ROE 股东回酬
C – Cash Flow 营运现金流
最后，冷眼先生说市场有80-90%的人是没能赚钱的，有时不是因为选错股，而是缺少了真确的心态和定力！这点只有靠你自己磨练才能领悟。所以呢，他鼓励投资者不停地看书增加知识。活到老，学到老。
附上冷眼先生的名言！“复杂的事简单做，简单的事正确做，正确的事常常做。”
希望我的分享能帮助更多投资者减少撞板！这次的交流真的获益不浅，也很期待冷眼先生未来将推出的新书。

If wave-5 subdivides (inside of a Terminal impulse), can part of it break the 2-4 baseline?

ANSWER:

Yes, if two conditions are met. Let's assume the Terminal is trending upward. If you see part of wave-5 break the 2-4 baseline, make sure these two rules are followed:

1. After the break, no part of wave-5 drops below the conclusion of wave-4. 
2. The highest price of wave-5 is made before the break of the 2-4 baseline. 

For example, if wave-5 is a contracting Triangle, and wave-b (of that Triangle) breaks the 2-4 baseline, make sure the conclusion point low of wave-4 is not broken during any part of wave-5. If not, then rule 1 is met and wave-5 may still be forming. If waves-c, d & e all form inside the price range established by wave-a, then rule 2 is met and wave-5 (of a Terminal) may still be forming. Finally, if a significant market decline ensues after the conclusion of wave-5's contracting Triangle, then it is safe to assume the entire Terminal was labeled correctly.

Is it necessary that all major tops complete with a violent reversal?

ANSWER:

At risk of comparing market action to the "Theory of Relativity," the answer to your question is dependent on the technical expertise of the observer. There is the "visual appearance" of a market top and then the "structural, technical reality" of a market top. 

Visually speaking, from the lay-person's perspective, a market can "look" as if it tops slowly or quickly, that it is followed by a violent reversal right off the highs or it slowly "falls off" the highs in a bowl-shaped fashion. 

Technically speaking, from a NEoWave perspective, patterns don't always conclude at the high or low of a trend - they can finish "below highs" and "above lows." When a market ends a psychological Wave pattern below a high, it may slowly top and not produce a violent decline right off the highs. But, if you begin your assessment of the "new trend" from the actual conclusion of the old trend, then YES "all major tops complete with a violent reversal."